A probability posted before the outcome is known, with the reasoning disclosed up front. Every call is graded against what actually happened — hits and misses shown with equal weight, nothing quietly buried. Financial calls, Sports, and Politics, all held to the same standard.
Every call states a probability — never a bare "yes it will" or "no it won't" — and the reasoning behind it, disclosed at the moment it's posted, before the outcome is known. Nothing is edited after the fact; a call is fixed the moment it's published.
Financial calls can be tied to a real ticker and, where possible, graded automatically against the exact closing price on the target date. Sports and Politics calls are graded by hand against real, verifiable outcomes — Politics specifically works best for bill and vote outcomes, which resolve against public record rather than a moving news narrative.
The full track record lists graded calls with a plain HIT or MISS badge and a Brier score — the squared error between the stated probability and what actually happened. It rewards genuine calibration, not confident-sounding guesses, and a wrong call is never quietly left off the list.